Bulgaria’s wilderness areas under threat from property investors

July 9th, 2007

Bulgaria’s wilderness areas, among the largest in Europe, are threatened by property investors who use legal loopholes to contest the territories’ protected status to build holiday flats.

Last week, Bulgaria’s Supreme Administrative Court stripped the protected status from the country’s largest nature area, Strandzha, which spreads over 116,100 hectares (286,890 acres) in the southeast of the country.

The court ruled in favour of a major property investor, Krash 2000, which operates in the southern Black Sea region, one of the few areas untouched by the construction boom along the coastline.

Krash 2000 had sold some 90 holiday apartments in its “Golden Pearl” complex in the village of Varvara before local environment authorities froze construction last year.

A 1995 law regulating Strandzha’s special status bans massive construction in the area, but Krash 2000 succeeded in having the law nullified in court by claiming it did not set clear boundaries for the protected territory.

Last year, another wild spot on the Black Sea — the Kamchia river estuary north of Strandzha — was similarly stripped of its protected status by a holiday resort investor.

Environmental watchdogs have warned that over half of Bulgaria’s protected wilderness areas are susceptible to the same claim as their boundaries are only vaguely defined by law.

“The court gave Strandzha to the mafia,” political analyst Evgeniy Daynov said in Dnevnik newspaper Thursday.

Daynov was among some 500 protestors who demonstrated in Sofia last week to protest the court’s decision.

The protestors gathered suddenly, briefly blocking traffic on major crossroads and staging a lie-in in a central square, booing police and carrying banners reading “For a concrete-free Strandzha” and “Strandzha is not for sale.”

On Monday, 35 demonstrators were arrested. Interior Minister Rumen Petkov said he would be “uncompromising” in dealing with such unauthorized gatherings.

But the protests seem to have worked as Environment Minister Dzhevdet Chakarov told journalists Thursday that the government would definitely appeal the Strandzha court ruling and fight to win back the nature area’s protected status.

“The government is categorical on its position — we will appeal the court ruling and do whatever it takes to save the Strandzha territory in its current boundaries,” Chakarov said.

If the court decision is confirmed on appeal, the government is also ready to decree a moratorium on construction in the area, Chakarov said.

He said his ministry would review the legislation and fix all existing loopholes to prevent threats to other so-called wilderness areas.

“Strandzha falls within the Natura 2000 European network of protected areas for both bird and habitat protection, so wilderness area or not, it will be protected,” Chakarov said.

Environmentalists remain doubtful, however.

“Assurances of such type do not inspire hope. It is unacceptable to rely on Natura 2000, when we have our Bulgarian law to protect a nature park that has been one for 12 years now,” Radostina Tsenova of the Bulgarian Biodiversity Foundation told AFP.

In February, the government voted to include some 20 percent of the country’s territory in Natura 2000, a centerpiece of the European Union’s strategy to halt the loss of biodiversity.

The decision sparked weekly protests by environmental groups who said at least 30 percent of wilderness areas should be included, and who accused the government of bending to pressure from investors.

Bulgaria has one of the best preserved nature habitats and largest wild animal populations in Europe, including thousands of brown bears and wolves.

Bulgaria property investors warned

July 6th, 2007

Investors in overseas properties should always be wary of developers’ hype and this has become very apparent in Bulgaria which has seen much publicity as the next property hotspot.

There has been specific focus on the Bulgarian coastal holiday home market. As a result, there is virtually no secondary market, developments have been hyped and sold by agents on high commissions and price rises and anticipated rental yields are, for the most part, unrealisable. According to mortgage lender Creditex, the advertised 20% rate of return for property along the coast is not realistic and the actual rates did not exceed 5%.

More than 100 three and multi-bedroom apartments in Slanchev Bryag (Sunny Beach), Elenite and Dyuni Black Sea summer resorts have remained unsold for months, real estate website imoti.net reports. This is seen as a clear sign of stagnation in the market for big apartments in the leading resorts on the Bulgarian southern Black Sea coast.

Dinko Slavov, sales manger of Bulgarian Properties, said that stagnation existed but it was affecting areas in resorts far from the coastline as well. A study by Creditex shows that the negative trend was not limited to seaside resorts but also affected big cities in the country.

The level of return on real estate investments in Bulgaria has halved since 2002 and in the case of housing units in Sofia’s Mladost neighbourhood, the rate has dropped to 4.11% from 9% said Creditex. The decline is being seen in all parts of Sofia.

Website Property Secrets is advising buyers to stay well clear of the Bulgarian coast as an investment opportunity, warning that it has been over-hyped and over-supplied and offers poor resale and rental opportunities,’

Property Secrets believes the real opportunity in Bulgaria lies, as it does in other markets in central and Eastern Europe, in the cities, and in particular Sofia – though investors might have to wait some time to see profits.

The firm argues that demand for property in the cities is driven by three factors – the emerging middle classes who provide the demand for modern apartments, plus increasing affluence, coupled with the supply of capital in the form of mortgage lending.

’Various forecasts have been made about the rate of increase of Sofia’s population from the conservative to those that predict its population will double within 10 years. All we can be very confident of is that Sofia’s population will grow rapidly and fairly dramatically as a result of inward migration. Sofia’s salary levels represent more than two and a half times the country’s average – plenty of incentive then to go to the capital and find a job,’ says Property Secrets.

Unemployment in the capital has dropped significantly from 15% in 1993 to 2% currently and Sofia has a huge 27% of its population within the household formation age range (20 to 34). Sofia also has the second largest household size in the CEE at 2.5 people per household. This is also a clear indicator of future, or current, pent-up demand for housing.

Property Secrets has launched its ‘Bulgaria Property Market Profile’ which is the latest in their range of country profiles, providing an in-depth analysis on property markets and investment hot spots in Europe. The Bulgaria Property Market Profile has been produced in addition to existing country profiles in Albania, Czech Republic, Poland, Romania and Ukraine, with more to follow shortly such as Cyprus, Croatia, Latvia and Malaysia.

Bulgaria Property Market Profile will be available to download for £17.99 or free for Property Secrets members. Property Secrets membership costs £7.99 per month. Visit www.propertysecrets.net.

Outlook good for Poland

June 27th, 2007

LONDON (Reuters) – Overseas property investors are doubling their money in Poland, data shows.

The eastern European country has retained its place at the top of Assetz quarterly property investment tracker, giving a total return on cash invested of 100 percent in the past year.

However, bricks and mortar in another recent entrant to the European Union — Bulgaria — are heading for a downturn.

While the country remains a strong position in the tracker, with annual returns of 71 percent, Assetz warns that Bulgarian tourist hot-spots show signs of overheating.

Rental markets are struggling in areas such as Sunny Beach and Bansko, where there is a “severe oversupply” of apartments and lack of demand.

The second quarter figures also show the UK continuing to perform well on the global stage.

The five major UK house price indices point to average annual house price growth of 11.1 percent — equating to an average of more than 20,000 pounds.

As a buy-to-let investment location, Britain also continues to prosper, lying in third place behind Poland and Bulgaria, with gross yields of 6 percent and a total return on cash invested of 68 percent.

France ranks fourth with total returns of 59 percent over the past 12 months, while the newest entrant to the tracker of investment hot-spots, Cape Verde, is also producing rosy returns.

The islands, off Africa’s west coast, have returned 40 percent on cash invested in the past year, boosted by low purchase costs.

Looking ahead, Assetz expects Poland, where a typical two-bedroom apartment costs just 50,000 pounds, to maintain its strong position in the table for the rest of 2007.

New French president Nicolas Sarkozy’s pledge to create a nation of homeowners through a number of tax breaks could spark a mini property boom in France, while the outlook for Cape Verde is also positive.

Stuart Law, managing director of Assetz, said: “Cape Verde is looking like a very interesting prospect, as tourism levels soar and the introduction of mortgages opens the floodgates to investors.”

But he warns investors must take a long-term view and ensure there is a strong rental demand to cover costs.

“Due diligence will become even more important during this next phase of the global property market’s cycle, and investors must be more selective to ensure they are not only buying in the right country, but in the right town or city, in order to benefit from the highest returns.”

Should you be looking to Slovakia ?

June 7th, 2007

While the Baltic States of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania may be nabbing the headlines for their massive house price inflation, the Global Property Guide has calculated that the Slovak Republic is where investors should be looking.

Estonia may have experienced unprecedented price inflation (over 556 per cent between 1997 and 2006) but the cost of purchasing there is beginning to outweigh the potential investment benefits.

The same, says the report, can be said for property prices in Latvia and Lithuania which, while enjoying capital appreciation, are unable to keep pace in terms of gross rental yields.

The Global Property Guide has therefore declared Slovakia as the best bet for investors looking to plough their cash into property overseas.

Why? One reason is the country’s strong GDP performance, a factor closely associated with long-term property price rises.

Unfortunately, there are no house price statistics for Slovakia, but the Global Property Guide reckons it’s pretty safe to presume that prices are low.

Furthermore, they estimate that gross rental yields in Bratislava, the capital city, are very high at 10.1 per cent, a sure indicator to investors to strike while the iron is hot.

With the added bonus of low rental income tax and no capital gains tax on long-term property holdings, the advantages and future economic growth make it one of Europe’s most tempting investment propositions.

Other Contenders

The Global Property Guide also backs four other European countries for their investment potential, with Turkey being the next in line.

While prices in Istanbulare not regarded as cheap, the GDP growth, healthy market and prospect of no capital gains tax boost its attractiveness.

Sofia in Bulgaria also boasts some highly impressive gross rental yields at 10.6 per cent, although house price inflation is beginning to ease and transaction costs remain high.

The 8.17 per cent gross rental yields offered in Bucharest, Romania, a newly opened and growing market, should also attract investors.

In addition, an economy that’s on the rise, combined with low rental income tax, no capital gains tax and good GDP growth make it an attractive proposition.

The Global Property Guide tip Hungary as something of an outside bet, given its weak economic growth.

Nevertheless, with gross rental yields around 6.6 per cent to 8.3 per cent in the Capital centre and house prices that are still relatively low, the state of the market may depend on how committed the government remains to strengthening the economy.

Slovak Property – Drivers for Growth

June 6th, 2007

We all know investors looking for overseas property – in particular in emerging markets – have primarily one goal in mind: capital gains.

So, how has Slovakia delivered so far and what potential does the market offer for the foreseeable future?

For the start, there are many regional housing markets so you need to look at them separately. The highest growth as well as best potential in the short-medium term has been seen in the economically well-off regions (such as Bratislava) as well as areas that have received significant foreign investments (eg. the car towns of Zilina and Trnava).

Bratislava as the main destination of foreign direct investment and the wealthiest part of Slovakia has been beating all other regions both in terms of the market’s buyoancy and growth.

Continuously high demand

Demand for good quality housing is very strong and still growing, as more and more buyers – mainly young people – are able to purchase a new home. This is due to the good economic situation in the capital, fast increasing incomes, as well as more and more widespread use of mortgage finance.

At present the demand outstrips supply of quality housing and any property put onto the market sells fast (in particular new developments; and of course classic city centre flats that have always been highly sought-after). Naturally as the market is developing and buyers have more options, location and standard (as well as payment terms, etc) are becoming more important and make some properties more desirable than others.

Bratislava, with its nearly 500,000 inhabitants by far the largest (and wealthiest) city, is also home to a large share of the country’s new residential and commercial construction. (In 2005 completed dwellings were located as follows: Bratislava region 31.5%, Trnava region 13.8%, Zilina region 13.4%, Presov region 11.8%, Trencin region 10.6%, Nitra region 7.3%, Kosice region 6.4% and Banska Bystrica region 5.2% of the total units.)

The dominance of the capital is not surprising. With wages and standard of living significantly above other areas of Slovakia (in particular the centre and east), Bratislava’s population can afford to purchase properties at prices out of reach of locals in most other regions. While the desire to buy a new, better quality home is not foreign to those living in Kosice, Presov, Banska Bystrica regions, the purchasing power is low. Developers therefore mostly don’t see new construction viable in such areas, and new residential projects can be counted on one hand.

Away from Bratislava the cities of Zilina and Trnava are worth mentioning as having an increasingly thriving market (though not allowing comparisons to the capital). The main cause for the new demand is fast growing local economy, employment and wages – in particular thanks to the huge car industry investments in both towns.

Prices on the up

So what has been happening to property prices in the last year or two?

Bratislava has seen a steady growth in recent years. An average rate is nearly impossible to establish, not only due to lack of official data but also large disparities between different property types.

The properties (apart from land) experiencing highest appreciation in Bratislava have been primarily city centre properties (mostly pre-war) and new build properties. Growth rates of city centre flats have been averaging 15- 20% p.a., while in case of new build homes 10-12% growth was more common last year. However, based on the desirability of location and quality, the span is wider at around 5- 20%. Communist built properties – in particular panel block constructions – have generally not seen much appreciation, although the price drops experienced in 2004-5 seem to have ceased and prices have stabilized last year.

Bratislava now features properties priced from just under 40,000 SKK/m2 (800 GBP/m2) up to 130,000 SKK/m2 (2,600 GBP/m2).

Comparable prices are unheard of outside the capital. Even in the thriving towns of Trnava and Zilina property prices reach up to a maximum of SKK 50,000/m2 (or 1,000 GBP/m2, Trnava) and 60,000 /m2 (1,200 GBP/m2, Zilina), with average prices coming to lower levels. Prices of communist built flats in the two towns are under SKK 30,000/m2 (600 GBP/m2).

Limited supply

Although Slovakia (compared to recent years) is experiencing somewhat of a mini-boom in construction, the country is still at the very bottom of the construction scale in Europe.

While Ireland and Spain top the European construction rates chart, Slovakia (along with Germany) holds the last position. To compare, only 2.8 units were build in Slovakia for each 1,000 inhabitants as opposed to Ireland’s 18.6 units per 1,000.

And so the country’s chronical shortage of housing will hardly be solved anytime soon. By government estimates nearly 50,000 new properties would need to be built annually to meet current demands and catch up with the EU’s average.

Slovakia with its 309 housing units per 1,000 inhabitants is well below the EU’s 450 hu per 1,000. However, the country only has 13-15,000 properties built each year (out of which nearly two thirds are family houses and the rest units in apartment blocks).

The massive domestic demand coupled with strong shortage of properties will continue to be the main factor pushing up prices in coming years.

Increasing affordability

Surveys in 2005 have shown that an average Bratislava inhabitant needs to save for significantly fewer years to buy an average property in the Slovak capital than those living for example in Prague, as well as any western European capitals.

Today, the situation hasn’t changed. While not all property will be affordable to the agerage buyer, fast growing real incomes as well as increasing use of mortgages are producing new waves of buyers. Statistics show a majority of buyers of new built flats in Bratislava are in their early to late 20’s.

Future potential

With Slovak economy accelerating beyond all expectations (8.3% GDP growth in 2006 and close to 9% predicted for 2007), unemployment in continuous sharp decline and fast growing prosperity and purchasing power, Slovakia presents some of Europe’s best fundamentals for property market’s growth.

Slovaks’ desire to own their home coupled with increasing ease of obtaining mortgage finance at favourable conditions will ensure an ongoing strength and buyoancy of the local market and further price appreciation.

So, investors should see healthy returns in the next 5 years, with prices of quality properties in popular locations on the way up. This is particularly true in economically strong regions, and will also increasingly be dependent on the micro-location and quality or standards of the property.

Importantly for the investor, the Slovak property market keeps being driven largely by domestic demand from local home buyers. This is in sharp contrast to many other new markets where prices have been inflated by large numbers of foreign investors or speculators. The numbers of foreign buyers in Slovakia are negligible compared to the domestic purchasers.

As in previous years, the best performers from the capital gains perspective are likely to be (construction) land, classic city centre properties and new builds (in particular in more sought-after locations).

Somewhat harder to predict is the development in other regions and towns. While the likes of Zilina and Trnava are already seeing a healthy growth (of around 8-12% p.a. on good quality properties), other towns such as Nitra and Trencin in western Slovakia, Banska Bystrica in central Slovakia and Kosice (and Presov) in the east, may need to wait for several more years yet to see their markets thrive. As happened in the west of the country, the road will typically need to be paved by significant foreign investments (and improvement of infrastructure necessary for such investments; in particular in the east).

While it is out of scope of this general overview to go into detail on specific locations, we welcome any questions you may have at http://www.slovakiainvestmentpropert y.com

New route to Bratislava

June 6th, 2007

Low-cost carrier Ryanair has announced a new route from Bristol to Bratislava (starting on 8 November 2007). Ryanair already flies from Bratislava to a number of European cities including London, Dublin and East Midlands (airport).

Interest rates on the way down

June 6th, 2007

At the end of April the National Bank of Slovakia (NBS) cut the base rate by 25 bp to 4.25% p.a. Low interest rates are excellent news for both investors and local home buyers and should ensure the continued buoyancy of the Slovak property market.

Slovakia’s GDP grew by 8.9% y/y in QI 2007. This year’s GDP growth is expected to come at a record high 8.7% p.a. (OECD), easily maintaining the country’s long term position as the Central European economic leader.

The registered unemployment rate fell to 8.50% in April, a new record low level, according to the Slovak labor office. That represents a 0.39% drop compared to March and a strong 2.54% fall y/y.

http://www.slovakiainvestmentpropert y.com

Bulgaria in Top 3 Tourist Destinations for Europeans

June 3rd, 2007

Bulgaria has made it to the top 3 of preferred tourist destinations among the Europeans, together with Greece and Tunisia, Bulgarian National TV Channel reported.

This summer the travelling agencies expect a 12% growth in the number of foreign tourists in Bulgaria and 60% of them will come from the EU member states.

In the last four years the country has gained popularity because of its luxurious hotels, unconventional tourist offers and the attractive venues. Still, there is a chance for Bulgaria to repel foreign tourists because of the uncontrolled construction works all over the Black Sea coast.

Bulgaria must also put some serious efforts in improving its executive and legislative power in order to put and end of the reckless constructions, CEO of the Bulgarian Tourists Agencies Association Donka Sokolova said.

“If we make even a single false move, Bulgaria will be forsaken by tourists for the next ten years at least,” Sokolova warned.

US downturn doesnt reach Eastern Europe

May 30th, 2007

A downturn in U.S. house price growth has not hit other property markets around the world, figures show….

Global house prices are rising by 9.6 percent per year on an unweighted basis, compared to 9.63 percent a year ago, according to the Knight Frank global house price index.

Latvia still tops the global property price growth list, surging ahead at an annual 61.2 percent.

Estonia and Bulgaria take second and third place in the latest index, based on growth in the first quarter of 2007: there, prices are rising at 24.5 percent and 22.6 percent per year respectively.

The UK ranks ninth with growth of 12.6 percent, while Canada, Singapore, South Africa, Norway and Lithuania are also faring well, with each experiencing double-digit growth.

But house price inflation in the U.S. has dropped to 4.7 percent from 12.5 percent a year ago.

The U.S. market has been hard hit in recent months by a crisis in the sub-prime mortgage market.

Negative territory in some countries

Subprime loans, the riskiest part of the U.S. mortgage market, serve borrowers with poor credit histories at higher interest rates.

Default rates have risen in recent months amid falling prices and slower sales in the U.S. housing market.

Elsewhere, however, the picture is worse. House price growth is in negative territory in five other countries — Italy, Switzerland, Japan, Germany and Sweden — according to the Knight Frank figures.

The German market, however, is seeing something of a turnaround; while prices are now lower than they were 12 months ago, they have risen 1.8 percent on the last quarter of 2006.

Despite reports of a property downturn, the Spanish market is also bearing up, with annualised growth of 7.2 percent compared to 12 percent in the first three months of last year.

Foreigners Buy EUR 310 M of Bulgarian Real Estate in Q1

May 28th, 2007

Foreign individuals and companies with foreign shareholders bought real estate worth EUR 310 M in the first three months of the year, Bulgarian National Bank (BNB) data shows.

The figure is a 63% increase over the same period of last year, when foreign buyers paid EUR 190 M for real estate in the country.

Real estate buys accounted for nearly 40% of all foreign direct investment in January-March, helping offset flagging inflows, according to the BNB figures.

Bulgaria has attracted foreigners for years with its warm climate, seaside and winter resorts and relatively low-priced properties, but interest grew into a boom last year.

Foreigners spent a total EUR 1,13 B on Bulgarian real estate in 2006 and are set to spend even more this year, although overconstruction is turning some of them off.

Brits remain the driving force of the boom and paid, as a whole, more than anyone else to buy houses in Bulgaria, focusing on seaside properties and accounting for 16,4% of the total money spent.

Luxembourg and US follow in the rankings, with 11,3% and 9,2% respectively, while neighbouring Greeks spent 7,0% of the total sum, buying predominantly properties in southwestern Bulgaria.

Ireland, Hungary and Spain each accounted for more than five percent of the money spent by foreigners on real estate buys in Bulgaria.

Bulgaria joined the EU in January, but that had no effect on the market, as foreigners could buy real estate long before the accession, with the exception of the land itself.